- Joined
- September 21, 2016
- Messages
- 123
- Points
- 66
- IGN
- usserwout
I Recently came across several discussions where people misconstrued the probability of winning certain items from a crate. Although the tooltip (when hovering an item) states "chance: 0.5%," it does not imply a direct 0.5% chance to win that item. If you add up all the 'chance' values for obtaining items, the total exceeds 100%, which shows something is wrong. The inclusion of "%" after the 'chance values' can be very misleading. I cannot know for sure, but I can assume that those 'chance' values work as weights. Meaning the chance to win a item is its weight divided by the sum of all the weights of the crate.
I created a script that can calculate the chance + average amount of keys needed to win that item for every crate in prison, factions and sbd. Please note that I have not considered rerolls, pets, or any other methods to boost rewards, as these factors may vary for each player.
The last column reveals the average amount of money one needs to spend before getting the corresponding reward. In this analysis, I make the assumption that there are no sales and no additional bonus keys are included and I assume the conversion rate is 1/80 (80 gold is 1 eur).
Here are a few crates:
Note: The rewards/weights for crates may have changed depending on the time you're reading this.
Tiki crate (SkyblockDream):
Interesting observation: Forge Pickaxe is the rarest item in sbd.
Winter Crate (Factions Immortal):
Winterfest's (Prison):
Top 3 most rarest and most expensive items:
1: Kingpin Rank Voucher (€16825)
2: Forge Pickaxe (€16627.08)
3: SkyKing Rank Voucher (€9976.25)
If you want to play with this a bit more with other crates, I put all the data & code on a public plugin on jnbot.
If you believe I made a mistake somewhere, please contact me on discord (usserwout).
I created a script that can calculate the chance + average amount of keys needed to win that item for every crate in prison, factions and sbd. Please note that I have not considered rerolls, pets, or any other methods to boost rewards, as these factors may vary for each player.
The last column reveals the average amount of money one needs to spend before getting the corresponding reward. In this analysis, I make the assumption that there are no sales and no additional bonus keys are included and I assume the conversion rate is 1/80 (80 gold is 1 eur).
Here are a few crates:
Note: The rewards/weights for crates may have changed depending on the time you're reading this.
Tiki crate (SkyblockDream):
| Item | Win chance | Average amount of keys needed | Average cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary Blaze Spawner (x16) | 7.52% | 14 | €166.27 |
| $150,000,000 Cash | 7.52% | 14 | €166.27 |
| 〄 10,000 Mobcoins | 7.52% | 14 | €166.27 |
| Legendary Iron Golem Spawner (x16) | 6.26% | 16 | €199.53 |
| $250,000,000 Cash | 6.26% | 16 | €199.53 |
| 〄 15,000 Mobcoins | 6.26% | 16 | €199.53 |
| Legendary Silverfish Spawner (x16) | 5.01% | 20 | €249.41 |
| +1,000 Island Shards | 5.01% | 20 | €249.41 |
| Legendary Villager Spawner (x16) | 3.76% | 27 | €332.54 |
| Jungle Commander Bundle | 3.51% | 29 | €356.29 |
| Mythical Eye Bundle | 3.26% | 31 | €383.7 |
| Level Skip Reward | 3.01% | 34 | €415.68 |
| God Crate Key (x5) | 3.01% | 34 | €415.68 |
| Legendary Tarzan Pet | 2.51% | 40 | €498.81 |
| +2,500 Island Shards | 2.51% | 40 | €498.81 |
| +1,500 Island Shards | 2.51% | 40 | €498.81 |
| Star Booster (x2) | 2.38% | 43 | €525.07 |
| Money Booster (x2) | 2.38% | 43 | €525.07 |
| Fragment Booster (x2) | 2.38% | 43 | €525.07 |
| Experience Booster (x2) | 2.38% | 43 | €525.07 |
| Mystery Key Flip | 2.26% | 45 | €554.24 |
| TIKI Tag Voucher | 2% | 50 | €623.52 |
| Player Level Premium Pass | 1.75% | 58 | €712.59 |
| Jungle Amulet Bundle | 1.5% | 67 | €831.35 |
| Treasure GKit Voucher | 1.25% | 80 | €997.63 |
| Seasonal Exquisite GKit Voucher | 1.25% | 80 | €997.63 |
| CrateKeys GKit Voucher | 1.25% | 80 | €997.63 |
| ♧ Tiki Crate Key ♧ (x2) | 0.877% | 115 | €1425.18 |
| Mystery Rank Crate | 0.626% | 160 | €1995.25 |
| ✩ Jartex Iron 1,000 (14d) | 0.501% | 200 | €2494.06 |
| ♱☘ Oasis Loot Crate ☘♱ | 0.376% | 267 | €3325.42 |
| SkyLord Rank Voucher | 0.251% | 400 | €4988.13 |
| Magnetic Pickaxe | 0.251% | 400 | €4988.13 |
| Infusion Pickaxe | 0.251% | 400 | €4988.13 |
| ✩ Jartex Iron 1,500 (14d) | 0.251% | 400 | €4988.13 |
| SkyGod Rank Voucher | 0.188% | 533 | €6650.83 |
| SkyKing Rank Voucher | 0.125% | 799 | €9976.25 |
| Forge Pickaxe | 0.075% | 1331 | €16627.08 |
Winter Crate (Factions Immortal):
| Item | Win chance | Average amount of keys needed | Average cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villager Spawner (x64) | 10.22% | 10 | €122.28 |
| Silverfish Spawner (x64) | 10.22% | 10 | €122.28 |
| Iron Golem Spawner (x64) | 10.22% | 10 | €122.28 |
| Blaze Spawner (x64) | 10.22% | 10 | €122.28 |
| Experience Bottle (Throw) | 7.67% | 14 | €163.04 |
| Warden Pet [Lvl. 1] | 6.39% | 16 | €195.65 |
| Santa's Stocking | 6.39% | 16 | €195.65 |
| Blizzard Bundle | 6.39% | 16 | €195.65 |
| Shockwave Pickaxe Bundle | 5.11% | 20 | €244.56 |
| Experience Bottle (Throw) | 5.11% | 20 | €244.56 |
| Gkit Container Bundle | 3.83% | 27 | €326.08 |
| Santa's Elf | 2.56% | 40 | €489.12 |
| CrateKeys GKit Voucher | 2.56% | 40 | €489.12 |
| Iron Package | 1.79% | 56 | €698.75 |
| Santa's Satchel | 1.28% | 79 | €978.25 |
| God Crate Keys (x6) | 1.28% | 79 | €978.25 |
| ❆❆❆ Grinch Loot Crate ❆❆❆ | 1.28% | 79 | €978.25 |
| Legendary Quest Voucher | 1.02% | 98 | €1222.81 |
| Grinder Special Set | 0.894% | 112 | €1397.5 |
| Boss Master Special Set | 0.894% | 112 | €1397.5 |
| Seasonal Tag Box | 0.767% | 131 | €1630.42 |
| Seasonal Key Flip | 0.767% | 131 | €1630.42 |
| Jartex Iron (1,250) | 0.767% | 131 | €1630.42 |
| ▵ Winter Crate Key ▵ | 0.639% | 157 | €1956.5 |
| Snowman's Carrot | 0.383% | 261 | €3260.83 |
| GOD Rank Voucher | 0.319% | 314 | €3913 |
| Mystery Rank Crate | 0.256% | 392 | €4891.25 |
| Jartex Iron (2,000) | 0.256% | 392 | €4891.25 |
| Immortal Rank Voucher | 0.204% | 490 | €6114.06 |
| Mysterious Bundle | 0.192% | 522 | €6521.67 |
| Eternal Rank Voucher | 0.128% | 783 | €9782.5 |
Winterfest's (Prison):
| Item | Win chance | Average amount of keys needed | Average cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| +75% Prestige Price | 14.86% | 7 | €84.13 |
| Currency Package | 11.89% | 9 | €105.16 |
| Green Star | 10.4% | 10 | €120.18 |
| Christmas Boost Bundle | 10.4% | 10 | €120.18 |
| +100% Prestige Price | 8.92% | 12 | €140.21 |
| Seasonal Christmas GKit Voucher | 4.46% | 23 | €280.42 |
| God Crate Key (x6) | 3.86% | 26 | €323.56 |
 Wall Miner | 3.57% | 29 | €350.52 |
| Red Start Bundle | 2.97% | 34 | €420.63 |
| Private Mine Token | 2.97% | 34 | €420.63 |
| Personal Experience Booster (Personal) | 2.97% | 34 | €420.63 |
| Fruit Set | 2.97% | 34 | €420.63 |
| Class Bundle | 2.97% | 34 | €420.63 |
| +100,000 Experience | 2.97% | 34 | €420.63 |
| 〚oSANTAo〛 Tag Voucher | 2.67% | 38 | €467.36 |
| Looter Set | 2.23% | 45 | €560.83 |
| +150,000 Experience | 1.49% | 68 | €841.25 |
| ✩ Jartex Iron 1,250 (2d) | 1.04% | 97 | €1201.79 |
| Seasonal Bundle | 0.892% | 113 | €1402.08 |
| ⍽ Gingerbread Loot Crate ⍽ | 0.892% | 113 | €1402.08 |
| 10,000 Beacons | 0.743% | 135 | €1682.5 |
| Legendary Thief Pet | 0.594% | 169 | €2103.13 |
| Legendary Resource Pet | 0.594% | 169 | €2103.13 |
| CrateKeys GKit Voucher | 0.594% | 169 | €2103.13 |
| ✩ Jartex Iron 1,500 (2d) | 0.594% | 169 | €2103.13 |
| 15,000 Beacons | 0.446% | 225 | €2804.17 |
| Rank Pack | 0.297% | 337 | €4206.25 |
| Mystic Cube | 0.297% | 337 | €4206.25 |
| Murderer Rank Voucher | 0.223% | 449 | €5608.33 |
| Godfather Rank Voucher | 0.149% | 673 | €8412.5 |
| Kingpin Rank Voucher | 0.074% | 1346 | €16825 |
Top 3 most rarest and most expensive items:
1: Kingpin Rank Voucher (€16825)
2: Forge Pickaxe (€16627.08)
3: SkyKing Rank Voucher (€9976.25)
If you want to play with this a bit more with other crates, I put all the data & code on a public plugin on jnbot.
If you believe I made a mistake somewhere, please contact me on discord (usserwout).
Last edited:
. am i cursed?